- 17 Φεβ 2021, 22:35
#692632
Eπειδή το παρακολουθώ στενά το θέμα, λόγω επαγγελματικής διαστροφής, νομίζω θα ειναι textbook για εξελίξεις στον χώρο των δικτύων.
Επι τροχάδην, αλλά να με συγχωρέστε που ειναι στα αγγλικά μιας και τα έγραφα για διεθνές κοινό και βαριέμαι να τα μεταφράσω

κάποια πολύ χοντρά συμπεράσματα:
In very high level, NTSOs (those who manage the network)—>ERCOT have some contingency (n-1, n-2)plans to ensure the stability of the system and they work upon these plans with some scenarios.
What it looks like is that when you have these major failures, usually there is not one incident that causes it, rather than a cascade of events. I ll summarize the few that i ve seen to be most important
1)ERCOT is mainly focused on the summer peaks, as the state does not really endure harsh winters. Summer is when they had the highest load up to now
2) Their 2020/2021 Winter Resource Adequacy Assessment estimated a worst case scenario "Extreme Pead Load/Extremee Generation Outages" scenario that included 13,953 MW of total thermal outages.
As we speak, for the last two days, 30-40GW of thermal is unavailable, so we’re are more than 2 times of their worse case scenario
3)Wind is slightly underperforming due to the icing of windturbines and solar slightly over performing (in total they also miss around 5GW of what they were accounting for)
4)Total expected consumption, is also of by 3GW (expected 67 on the extreme case, they faced 69GW)
5)Lack of interconnections, which i m not sure if eventually would help as Mexico is also facing extended blackouts
6)Widespread failures on distribution level (overhead lines cut-off, transformers overloaded)
At this moment, there s also a lot of speculation of thermal units deliberately staying off-line these critical moments due to the sky rocket prices of the natural gas which follows the spot market, but i ll leave this out of the equation for now
Το θέμα του winterization όντως ισχύει και ειναι γενικότερο failure του energy infrastructure και όχι μόνο του δίκτυου ηλεκτρισμού.
Το 2011 που είχαν ξαναφάει πουτσα, υποτίθεται οτι ειχε γίνει ενα white paper και θα επρεπε να κάνουν κάποια πράγματα. Δεν έγινε τπτ
Πέραν όλων αυτών ομως, εγώ κρατάω ενα πράγμα. Κλιματική αλλαγή, αυτο το παλούκι που θα μπει στον γκώλο μας